2012-2013 OFF SEASON THREAD

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Which prospects might the Red Sox add to their 40-man roster this winter?

As the season winds down, the Red Sox face an offseason in which a crowded 40-man roster likely will render the team vulnerable to some plunder via the Rule 5 draft.
 
Before diving into some of the players likely to be protected, it’s worth looking at the current shape of the 40-man roster. With three players (John Lackey, Franklin Morales, Ryan Sweeney) currently on the 60-day disabled list, the Sox have a total of 43 players on their 40-man roster. At the end of the season, the team will add two “players to be named” (right-hander Rubby De La Rosa and outfielder Jerry Sands) to that list as the last pieces of the August blockbuster with the Dodgers. So that’s 45 players.
 
However, seven Red Sox players will also be free agents at season’s end: Aaron Cook, James Loney, Daisuke Matsuzaka, David Ortiz, Vicente Padilla, Scott Podsednik and Cody Ross.
 
Still, given the excellent likelihood that the team re-signs Ortiz and the mutual interest between Ross and the Sox in getting a long-term deal done, there is a very good chance that the Sox will have little room to maneuver with their 40-man roster. In other words, the Sox will need to start clearing players from the 40-man in order to open spots for prospects coming up through the system whom the team wants to protect from other teams via the Rule 5 draft.
 
(Players can be taken in the Rule 5 draft who are not on the 40-man roster after four years if they signed at age 19 or older and after five years if they signed at age 18 or older.)
 
Given the crowded 40-man roster, and the fact that the Sox will have a number of offseason needs to address, the team either will have three options from which to mix and match with the interesting ensemble of potential Rule 5 selections listed below:
 
1) Resign itself to leaving a number of interesting Rule 5-eligible players exposed;
 2) Protecting a number of these prospects while removing several players who remain under team control from the 40-man roster;
 3) Trade some of the Rule 5 eligible prospects
 
Here’s a look at a number of players who represent potential additions to the 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 draft in December:
 
NEAR LOCKS
 
C Christian Vazquez — The 2008 ninth-rounder out of Puerto Rico may be the best defensive catcher in the Red Sox’ system — left-hander Rich Hill was extremely impressed when working with him at the start of the year in High-A Salem. Vazquez also has some interesting offensive tools. He slammed 18 homers in 105 games in Greenville in 2011, and after a poor first half (.223/.308/.293/.601) to start this year in Salem, he enjoyed a ridiculous stretch (.343/.448/.581/1.029) in 29 games in the second half to earn a promotion to Portland.
 
Is Vazquez major league-ready? Probably not. He hit .205/.280/.260/.541 (with eight walks and nine strikeouts) in 20 games at the end of the year in Double-A Portland. But he’s got a pretty interesting ceiling as a catcher, to the point where a team might take a flyer on him in the Rule 5 draft and let him serve an apprenticeship at the big league level. He’s too valuable to give up for $50,000.
 
RHP Allen Webster — Acquired from the Dodgers in the August blockbuster, a case can be made that Webster is the top pitching prospect in the Red Sox’ system. One talent evaluator suggested his floor is that of a late-innings reliever, and that his ceiling — thanks to a mid-90s power sinker that gets big swing-and-miss and groundball rates — could be that of Kevin Brown.
 
RHP Alex Wilson — The 25-year-old right-hander looks like a potential late-innings fixture for the Red Sox in years to come. His transition from the rotation to the bullpen in Pawtucket this year proved a bit more deliberate than anticipated, but in the playoffs, he was overpowering, attacking the strike zone with his mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider while retiring virtually everyone he faced.
 
BORDERLINE (GOOD CHANCE OF BEING SELECTED IF UNPROTECTED, BUT NOT LOCKS TO BE PROTECTED)
 
C Dan Butler — When Butler stuck in big league camp this past spring training longer than Luis Exposito, it was pretty clear that the once-undrafted catcher out of the University of Arizona (where he was a backup) had made a pretty strong case for himself in the Red Sox system. The 25-year-old profiles as a likely big league backup, but after a year in which he hit .247/.342/.403/.746 while demonstrating his characteristic strong defense, he’d almost surely be snapped up if exposed to the Rule 5 draft, and he profiles as a player who would likely stick on a roster for a full year.
 
As things currently stand, the Sox very likely will add him to the 40-man roster to serve as the first line of depth for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ryan Lavarnway next year, while Vazquez continues his development.
 
RHP Josh Fields — The 2008 first-rounder seemed like little more than a throw-in at the time that the Mariners included him, along with Erik Bedard, in a trade deadline swap that saw the Sox part with four minor leaguers. But Fields enjoyed a breakthrough with his command this year, dominating in a year-end spell in Pawtucket (19 strikeouts, 2 walks, 0.00 ERA in 13 2/3 innings) to put himself back on the prospect radar.
 
It is fair to wonder whether his breakthrough in his age 26 season (Fields turned 27 in August) is sustainable, but given what he did this year, someone likely would take a shot with him rather than spending millions on a multi-year deal for a middle reliever.
 
OF Jeremy Hazelbaker – In the last three years, Hazelbaker has averaged 16 homers and 49 steals with an OPS in excess of .800 every year. He strikes out a lot and actually saw his on-base percentage slide backwards in Double-A Portland this year (from .350 in 90 games at that level in 2011 to .338 in 114 games there in 2012), but he’s got the power and speed combination to tantalize a team in the Rule 5 draft. Those tools would make him likely to get taken in the Rule 5 draft, even if the holes in his swing suggest that he might not be likely to stick.
 
RHP Michael Olmsted – This huge (6-foot-6, listed at 245 pounds) right-hander with big stuff represents a pretty fascinating out-of-nowhere discovery. Vice President for Player Personnel Allard Baird saw Olmsted at an independent league tryout in 2011 and signed him before he went the indy league route.
 
Olmsted had a 2.29 ERA and 61 strikeouts (against just eight walks) in 39 1/3 innings in the High-A Carolina League this year, then didn’t give up an earned run while striking out 31 and walking seven in 20 innings after a promotion to Double-A Portland. The 25-year-old led Sox minor leaguers with 14.0 strikeouts per nine innings on the strength of a mid-90s fastball and power slider.
 
Though he was a bit old for the levels where he pitched (owing to a year missed due to Tommy John and another spent pitching in the minors in Japan), his numbers and his stuff make it extremely likely that someone would take him in the Rule 5 if he’s left unprotected.
 
RHP Steven Wright – Though 28, Wright’s relatively recent commitment to the knuckleball put him back on a prospect path and led the Sox to trade Lars Anderson to the Indians in order to acquire him at the trade deadline. Wright went 10-7 with a 2.54 ERA in 25 starts this year with Double-A Akron and (after the trade) Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket. He walked a lot of guys (69 in 141 2/3 innings) but opponents simply didn’t hit against him.
 
Knuckleballers are among the most difficult class of players to project based on minor league performance. Still, given his success with his new style of pitching this year and the possibility that he could offer starting depth to a big league team and has three options remaining, it’s probably more likely than not that the Sox would protect him from the Rule 5.
 
INTERESTING TOOLS BUT UNLIKELY TO BE PROTECTED
 
3B/1B Michael Almanzar – Once a highly touted power-hitting prospect, Almanzar’s career looked like it would never go anywhere for most of the past three years. But he just had a breakthrough year, hitting .300/.353/.458/.812 with 12 homers and 36 doubles as a corner infielder (mostly at third base) in High-A Salem. But as a 21-year-old who has never played a day above High-A, he’s unlikely to get protected. Even as a player with some power potential to give him interesting upside, the idea that he could jump three levels and hold his own against big league pitching seems a stretch.
 
RHP Chris Balcom-Miller – Before the year, he looked like a near-lock for a 40-man spot. But he struggled through a brutal year in Double-A Portland during which his strikeouts went down to career lows while his walks went up to career highs, and his sinker was inconsistent, as he gave up a career-high nine homers in 85 2/3 innings.
 
He showed some improvement once moved to the bullpen with Portland, where he had a 3.62 ERA with 30 strikeouts and 11 walks in 32 1/3 innings, but didn’t show the dominance to suggest he is ready for the big leagues.
 
RHP Miguel Celestino – Big (6-foot-6), physical right-hander with a powerful high-90s four-seamer that, at times, he can command down in the strike zone to generate a lot of groundballs. But while the velocity is intriguing, Celestino remained inconsistent while going 7-9 with a 4.68 ERA while spending all year in High-A Salem. His inexperience, inconsistency and right-handedness make it a stretch to suggest he’d be vulnerable in the Rule 5.
 
RHP William Cuevas – Cuevas (8-2, 1.40 ERA, 72 strikeouts, 15 walks in 77 1/3 innings) had an incredible season for the Lowell Spinners. His velocity bumped up from the high-80s to the low-90s, topping out around 95, and he showed the breaking stuff to dominate college competition.
 
Still, it’s a long, long way from Lowell to the big leagues – too far, really, to contemplate adding Cuevas to the 40-man, given that it would be far from a slam dunk that he’s three years or less from the big leagues. In the last several years, the Sox haven’t protected any players who finished the season below High-A.
 
OF Alex Hassan – Hassan’s approach and understanding of the strike zone ranks with that of just about anyone in the Sox system. He had a .377 OBP with 55 walks and 70 strikeouts this year in Pawtucket. But, he’s a corner outfielder who has spent most of his time in left, and the 24-year-old slugged .365 in Triple-A this past season before seeing his season end due to injury. He’s not ready for an everyday job, and doesn’t have the above-average complementary skill set to suggest a prototypical fourth outfielder.
 
IF Heiker Meneses – In 2011, Meneses had a breakthrough season at age 19, holding his own (.295/.363/.400/.763 with 25 steals) and demonstrating defensive versatility while going from Greenville to Salem to Double-A Portland. But he fell back in 2012, hitting just .197/.282/.244/.526 in Portland before a demotion back to Salem, where he hit .272/.313/.392/.705.
 
Meneses may yet develop into a big league utility player, but for now, his backwards step this year suggests that he’s not in position for such a role anytime in 2013. Moreover, the Sox are deep in more advanced utility players

ALEX SPEIER, WEEI

[Bear]

FORECOAST:  2013 RED SOX PITCHERS

BOSTON -- As the team's last homestand winds down, here's a breakdown of the Sox pitching staff and who is likely to be back, and who will be elsewhere, in 2013:

Starting pitchers

Contract status: Signed through 2013, with club option in 2014
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: The 2012 season will be the aberration in a long and fruitful career for Lester. Opposing hitters feasted on his four-seam fastball in 2012, hitting 14 home runs with an isolated power average (ISO) of .328, compared with .190 and 6 home runs in 2011. There was no drop in velocity, which suggests when he made mistakes he paid dearly for them. The swing-and-miss percentage of all of the pitches in his repertoire remained roughly the same, though there was a significant spike in the number of line drives hit off his cutter and curve. With a fresh start in 2013, Lester should return to top form.

Clay Buchholz
 Contract status: Signed through 2015, with club options for 2016 and 2017.
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: The Sox are confident that Buchholz's performance in the second half (2.93 ERA in 13 starts) is more indicative of his talent than his rough start (8.69 ERA in his first five starts). Stint on the DL with esophagitis cost him a shot at 200 innings.

John Lackey
 Contract status: Signed through 2014, club option 2015
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: It's doubtful that another club would take a chance on a Tommy John patient without seeing him pitch, especially at that price. And an argument can be made that with a rebuilt elbow, Lackey might finally deliver the type of performance they expected when they signed him to a five-year, $82.5 million deal. With $30.5 million still due him, the Sox may have no choice but to hope for as much.

Daisuke Matsuzaka
 Contract status: Free agent
 Forecast: Gone
 Comment: Short of Daisuke paying them to keep him, hard to imagine a scenario in which the Japanese right-hander returns.

Aaron Cook
 Contract status: Free agent
 Forecast: Gone
 Comment: Nice try

Felix Doubront
 Contract status: Non-arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Doubront showed flashes of great promise, though his second-half fade (2-5, 6.35 ERA) is worrisome. Doesn't turn 25 until next month, and he fits the mold of young, cheap arms the Sox need for their rotation

Franklin Morales
 Contract status: First-year arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Power lefty may be given a shot to win a starting job in camp, but could also wind up in bullpen to make a potentially fearsome left-left tandem with Andrew Miller. Shoulder issues raise a red flag, but he's still only 26.

Relievers
 
Andrew Bailey
 Contract status: First-year arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Freak thumb injury and recurrence of forearm stiffness made this a lost season for Bailey, but healthy he projects as the team's closer for 2013, and still at a reasonable price.


Junichi Tazawa
 Contract status: Non-arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, Tazawa has been phenomenal down the stretch -- in his past 11 appearances, 1 earned run in 10 innings (0.90), 16 whiffs, 1 walk -- marking him as the leading candidate to become Boston's primary setup man in 2013. He would appear to have future closer potential as well

Alfredo Aceves
 Contract status: First-year arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Gone
 Comment: The Sox have a decision to make on Aceves, who still has value, either as a starter or a reliever, but may have worn out his welcome here because of his clashes with Bobby Valentine. The Sox could gamble that Aceves will coexist more peacefully with a new manager, but Tazawa's emergence makes him more expendable in the pen and the Sox may decide he's too great a potential headache to audition again for a starter's role. This much is true, though: The man can pitch

Contract status: First-year arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Miller has emerged as a valuable weapon in the bullpen, which has a chance to be formidable next season

Daniel Bard
 Contract status: First-year arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: The failed experiment to make Bard a starter led to instability in both the rotation and bullpen and played a big role in the team's poor start. Now, finding the five mph Bard lost on his fastball in the transition becomes the key to whether Bard returns to his previous status as one of the game's foremost setup men. The pitcher shares with club officials the belief that getting away this winter and coming back fresh next spring will prove therapeutic.

Rich Hill
 Contract status: Second-year arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Another Tommy John survivor, Hill has pitched well when healthy, and is still cheap. He gives Sox roster flexibility and depth

Craig Breslow
 Contract status: Second-year arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Gone
 Comment: Breslow probably will be priced out of coming back, especially with the Sox having cheaper alternatives from the left side.

Vincente Padilla
 Contract status: Free agent
 Forecast: Gone
 Comment: Have pitcher, will travel.


Mark Melancon
 Contract status: Non-arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Cheap, organizational depth. Could go to a team looking for relief help

Chris Carpenter
 Contract status: Non-arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Sox would like to see what Carpenter can do healthy.

Scott Atchison
 Contract status: First-year arbitration eligible.
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Elbow condition complicates things, but Atchison pitched well enough to be invited back.

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/8412264/which-boston-red-sox-pitchers-back-2013

Gordon Edes

[Bear]

FORECOAST:  2013 SOX POSITION PLAYERS

BOSTON -- As the team's last homestand unwinds, here's a position-by-position breakdown of who is likely to be back, and who will be elsewhere, in 2013:

CATCHER

Jarrod Saltalamacchia
 Contract status: Arbitration eligible, free agent after 2013
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Saltalamacchia has posted a .202/.280/.401/.681 batting line since June 1, so an upgrade is not of the question. But his 24 home runs -- third among big league catchers -- give him some value, he was solid defensively and the Sox probably are looking at him sharing the position one more season before he becomes a free agent.

Ryan Lavarnway
 Contract status: Non-arbitration, under club control
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: He hasn't hit in his first prolonged exposure to big league pitching, but he has hit at every level in the minors and his defense has improved to the point where he was named best defensive catcher in Triple-A International League. He'll be given a chance to beat out Saltalamacchia for the No. 1 job next spring.

FIRST BASE

James Loney
 Contract status: Free agent
 Forecast: Gone
 Comment: There will be better options available than the erstwhile Dodger, who has just five home runs and a sub-.400 slugging percentage.

Mauro Gomez
 Contract status: Non-arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Gone
 Comment: He was International League MVP in Pawtucket, but at 28, his ship probably has sailed. Could stick as organizational depth

SECOND BASE

Dustin Pedroia
 Contract status: Signed through 2014, club option for 2015
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Weathered his first whiff of controversy, still the man you build around.

SHORT STOP

Mike Aviles
 Contract status: Arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Gone
 Comment: Aviles played much better defensively than expected, and his 13 home runs were a plus. But a sub-.300 on-base average makes it highly unlikely he'll be back as starter and he might be displaced as utilityman by the speedier Pedro Ciriaco. Could be a nontender.

Jose Iglesias
 Contract status: Last year of four-year major league deal
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Iglesias is the player the Sox would like to start at short next season, but his bat remains a big question. Could be a position the Sox look outside to upgrade (Elvis Andrus?).

Pedro Ciriaco
 Contract status: Non-arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: He is a faster, cheaper alternative to Aviles as a bench player.

THIRD BASE

Will Middlebrooks
 Contract status: Non-arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Showed plenty of potential before fracturing his wrist; comes into camp as starting third baseman.

OUTFIELD

Cody Ross
 Contract status: Free agent
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: The Sox have already signaled their interest in signing Ross to an extension. He reestablished his value with 21 home runs and a .500 slugging percentage and showed his ability to handle the Yawkey Way melodrama.

Jacoby Ellsbury
 Contract status: Arbitration eligible, eligible for free agency after 2013
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: This could go either way. Ellsbury would bring back the most value of any player on the roster in a trade, and given the unlikely event he signs an extension this winter, especially since it is hard to get an accurate read of his market value because he was hurt this summer, Sox might view him as the key to their roster "reset." They have his potential replacement in Jackie Bradley, but he's probably a year away.

Ryan Sweeney
 Contract status: Second-year arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Gone
 Comment: Self-inflicted hand injury gave Sweeney no chance to show he might be worth hanging onto. Good candidate to be nontendered

Scott Podsednik
 Contract status: Free agent
 Forecast: Gone
 Comment: Served a purpose this season.

Daniel Nava
 Contract status: Non-arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Organizational depth, could stick as an extra outfielder.

Ryan Kalish
 Contract status: Non-arbitration eligible
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Sox will probably be in the market for a moderately priced outfielder, a la Ross, while giving Kalish a chance next spring to win a job. Still has yet to perform at pre-injury levels, but another winter of rest might make a big difference.

DESIGNATED HITTER
David Ortiz
 Contract status: Free agent
 Forecast: Stay
 Comment: Red Sox should end all the suspense and sign him to a two-year deal, and if his production should slide in the second year, look at it as a bonus for a tremendous decade.

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/8408893/which-boston-red-sox-position-players-back-2013

Gordon Edes

[Bear]

With a week and a half to go, Red Sox in line for No. 8 draft pick

By Brian MacPherson



Ten days and eight games remain in this can't-end-soon-enough season for the Red Sox. Watching the American League East standings have long since become depressing, so here's a look at the standings that actually could have a positive impact on the franchise down the road -- the jockeying for draft-pick position:

1. Houston, 50-103
 2. Colorado, 58-94
 3. Chicago Cubs, 59-94
 4. Cleveland, 63-90
 5. Minnesota, 64-89
 6. Miami, 66-87
 7. Toronto, 66-85
 8. Boston, 69-85
 9. PITTSBURGH, compensatory pick
 10. New York Mets, 69-83
 -- end of protected first-round picks --
 11. Kansas City, 70-82
 12. Seattle, 73-80

In the loss column, Boston is three games clear of Kansas City and thus does not look to be in imminent danger -- barring a winning streak to close out the season -- of falling out of the zone in which its first-round pick is protected from being forfeited if it signs a qualified free agent.

Realistically, it appears the highest the Red Sox could climb before the end of the season is to the No. 6 overall pick. They haven't drafted higher than No. 7 since 1967.

Twitter: @brianmacp

By Brian MacPherson
http://blogs.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/2012/09/with-a-week-and-a-half-to-go-red-sox-in-line-for-no-8-draft-pick.html

[Bear]

State of the Sox Notebook: September 24, 2012

WHERE THEY STANDAs the season reaches its final 10 days, the Red Sox are mere bystanders to the tight playoff races seemingly going on around them, poised to finish with their worst record in the last 15 years.

They made a handful of additional call-ups from Pawtucket to provide them with some roster flexibility for the final four series, but the lineup on a nightly basis continues to resemble something that you'd expect to see in a spring training split-squad game.

With just two games remaining at Fenway Park before the team embarks on its final road trip of the season, the Sox figure to finish with one of the worst home marks of any team in either league. Only the Minnesota Twins have fewer home wins (29) than do the Red Sox as the last full week of the schedule begins.

THE WEEK THAT WASWith the schedule feeding them a steady diet of American League East rivals, the Red Sox split a four-game series on the road before returning home to drop two-of-three against Baltimore.

Tim Bogar interviewed for the Houston Astros' managerial vacancy last week while in Tampa. It marks the second time that Bogar has been in the running with the Astros. He played for Houston during his career and is close friends with former Astros star Craig Biggio, who is advising owner Jim Crane and GM Jeff Luhnow.

The Sox also honored some minor league players over the weekend at Fenway. On hand were: Brandon Workman (Minor League Pitcher of the Year); Xander Bogaerts (Offensive Player of the Year); Jackie Bradley (Defensive Player of the Year); and Gavin Cecchini (Baserunner of the Year).

THE WEEK AHEADThe Red Sox finish out the home half of their schedule with a brief two-game set against Tampa Bay before traveling to Baltimore for three more with the surprising Orioles.

With a losing record -- the organization's first since `1997 -- already assured, the most the Sox can hope for is to finish out of the A.L. East basement and play spoiler against the Rays -- who cling to a long-shot playoff chance -- and the Orioles, who are virtually assured of making the post-season but would rather, naturally, win the division than one of the wild card spots.

One thing to keep an eye on: if the Red Sox can finish with one of the bottom 10 records in baseball, they can assure themselves of a "protected pick" in next June's draft. That means the Sox could sign a premium free agent this winter and not have to surrender their first-round choice.

WHISPERSIt's widely assumed that John Farrell is the first choice to replace Bobby Valentine as manager, but the Sox may have to look elsewhere for a backup plan if they can't work out compensation for Farrell. Mike Scioscia was reportedly next on their list, but Los Angeles Angels owner Arte Moreno said over the weekend that Scioscia will be returning in 2013.

Contract extension talks with Cody Ross have begun, though it's unclear whether the Sox can get Ross to agree to a new deal before he can file for free agency at the end of the World Series. Ross has said he would prefer to remain in Boston, but is likely to have interest from the Yankees and others if he isn't locked up.

One name that could be in play this winter, whether the Sox re-sign Ross or not: outfielder Alfonso Soriano. The Cubs would pay a sizeable portion of Soriano's remaining $36 million over the next two years and he would represent a decent stop-gap option in the outfield until young outfielders like Bradley and Bryce Brentz are ready to contribute.

BOX SCORE BONANZAScott Podsednik hit .348, going 8-for-23, in seven games last week, playing center field and left field. He has a four-game hitting streak in which he is batting .438, going 7-for-16. On Sunday, he went 2-for-4, his third straight multi-hit game. He is 6-for-12 (.500) with two doubles in those games.

In 25 games at Fenway Park this season, he is batting .381, going 32-for-84, the best home average in the American League (minimum 50 plate appearances). He has hit in 18 of his 23 starts at Fenway this season. In 36 career games at Fenway, Podsednik is batting .364, going 47-for-129, with a .394 on-base percentage, and .450 slugging percentage.

Jacoby Ellsbury has been sidelined with an undisclosed ailment that affects his throwing. He was in the original starting lineup Sunday before being scratched shortly after that. Podsednik played center field in the last three games during Ellsbury's absence. With Ellsbury’s availability in doubt, and with just two remaining home games, Podsednik would be the likely center fielder, giving him a chance to extend his strong home field performances.

IN THE SPOTLIGHTJacoby Ellsbury, who is hitting .277 with four home runs, 26 RBI, and 40 runs scored this season, has been out of the starting lineup for the past four games (although, he did get into Thursday’s game in Tampa Bay). He had been in the original starting lineup Sunday before being scratched shortly afterwards.

Before being sidelined, Ellsbury had hit in 10 of his previous 12 games, batting .375, going 18-for-48 with two home runs and 10 RBI. In that stretch, he raised his average 20 points from .257 to .277.

The extent of his injury and his availability going forward are uncertain. But, it would be good for Ellsbury, who has been limited by injury to just 70 games this season, if he can get back in the lineup and continue that kind of recent productivity. It would be good for the Sox, too, as they need all the help they can get as they limp to the finish line.

FARM REPORTOutfielder Ryan Kalish, who is still recovering from two surgeries last offseason, remains with the major league team as a September call-up, but is virtually shut down. Kalish has not been in in a game since Sept. 16 and has not started since Sept. 11.

Overall, in 35 games with the major league team this season, he is batting .229, with a .272 on-base percentage, and .260 slugging percentage. In 10 games since he was called up Aug. 27, Kalish is hitting .353, going 6-for-17 with a walk, a run scored, and three strikeouts.

But Manager Bobby Valentine said he is likely to use Kalish only in an emergency situation.

“I would think unless an emergency arises I can’t see him playing,” Valentine said. “He hasn’t swung now in a long time. So he might pinch-run. He’s not even throwing very much. He’s here just in case of emergency.”

STAT OF THE WEEKWith their 9-6 loss in 12 innings on Saturday, the Red Sox fell to 2-9 in extra innings, including an 0-7 mark in such games at home. It is only the 3rd time since 1901 that a team has gone winless in at least 7 extra-inning games at home in a full season (last, 1964 KC Athletics).

http://www.csnne.com/photogallery?gid=13885&gf=aggregate

[Bear]

Why Doubront can't be the No. 3 starter in 2013

By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

Felix Doubront pitched very well on Sunday for the Red Sox, allowing one run over seven innings against Baltimore and striking out 11.

A 24-year-old lefthanded starter with swing-and-miss stuff is a nice commodity to have. But if Doubront is the No. 3 starter at the start of next season, the Red Sox will have failed this winter.

The most important duty GM Ben Cherington has this winter is to improve the quality and depth of the rotation. Everything else is secondary.

That means Doubront can't be the No. 3 starter. Because while he's pretty good, he's not that good. The Red Sox have to sign or trade for a pitcher who slots in one of their three best starters. Then comes Doubront and John Lackey or somebody else.

Who is that pitcher? Your guess is as good as mine at this point. The best free agent at the moment is Zack Greinke and it's not him, not with how he has pitched for the Angels.

Maybe it's Edwin Jackson, Jake Peavy or James Shields. It just has to be somebody good. The Sox have money and prospects. They need to get the rotation fixed and not go into spring training holding auditions or transitioning relievers. We saw how that worked this year.

Red Sox starters have a 5.03 ERA. That's 12th in the American League. Poor starters wreck the entire team. The bullpen gets worn down and the position players get mentally beaten down from having to play from behind every night.

A few other thoughts about the future:

• Who the next pitching coach may be more important than who the next manager is. That the Sox have a 6.31 ERA in the first inning indicates how poorly they prepare for games.

• Assuming Bobby Valentine is fired, the Sox need to have their manager in place in two or three weeks, not two months like last year. The new guy has to have a chance to build a coaching staff he can trust, not one he can't turn his back on.

You have to believe Cherington already has a list of 3-4 candidates in mind and will move swiftly. Our guess is John Farrell, Tim Bogar or Torey Lovullo gets the job.

• Dustin Pedroia gets named captain.

• Cody Ross gets two years and $10-12 million.

• Hitting coach Dave Magadan and bullpen coach Gary Tuck go to the Cubs when their contracts expire.

• Pawtucket manager Arnie Beyeler gets a spot on the coaching staff.

• David Ortiz gets a two-year deal or one with a reachable option. Yes, it's taking a chance. But it's taking a chance on somebody who can handle playing for your team and won't whine about the market.

• Jason Varitek takes some kind of position with the team. But not in uniform.

• The Red Sox hire a "director of pitching" with the power to influence drafting, scouting, development and coaching at all levels of the organization.

• Cherington also hires somebody notable as one of his top assistants.

That's it for now. Once this season is over — a week from tomorrow, thank goodness — there will be plenty of time to write more about what is to come.

[Bear]

Pedro remembers the rebuilding of a bad Red Sox team

BRIAN MacPHERSON
BRIAN MacPHERSON Providence Journal Journal Sports Writer
bmacpherson@providencejournal.com
Published: 24 September 2012 05:37 PM

BOSTON — Not in the decade-long tenure of the John Henry ownership group have the Red Sox endured a season like this one, a season in which they’ve had to spend more than a month just playing out the string and looking toward next year.

But it wasn’t that long ago that the Red Sox had to endure such a season — and that experience still burns in the memory of legend Pedro Martinez.

Martinez was part of the 2001 Red Sox team that crashed and burned so dramatically in August and September, and he was part of the 2003 Red Sox team that came so close to the World Series before being thwarted by Aaron Boone. A year after that, of course, the Red Sox won their first World Series in 86 years.

“I’m not that far apart from having teams that went completely bad, especially after the second half,” said Martinez, who was at Fenway Park on Sunday for the team-organized tribute to Johnny Pesky. “They have to change some things. When things go wrong, you really have to look for the things that went wrong and fix them.”

Martinez is among those who believe the Red Sox, sitting 16 games under .500 and 20 games out of first place, could climb back into contention by next season.

“The team has the tools to actually come back next year,” Martinez said. “I was on a lot of teams where we had a lot of sore and painful defeats, but it all showed up the next year and we got better and better and better.

“This team, all they have to do is fix their character, to come back next year and think that anything is possible and start nice and fresh. Hopefully management will make the adjustments they need to make and work on the character of the team a little bit more. I think the talent is basically there. They need to just work all together, pulling toward the same side and focus on it. I think it’s achievable.”

[Bear]

Some diversion therapy

The Red Sox [team stats] are officially in an anywhere-but-here, anytime-but-now, anyone-but-us mode these days.
 
Just two home games left, then six more on the road, then a finish line so close right now you can almost smell it.
 
This season died in its sleep about a month and a half ago, not too long before the Nick Punto trade went down. Ever since, the clock has been ticking on a team waiting to put itself out of its misery.
Around Fenway the last few days, the focus has been anywhere but on the here and now.
 
Saturday was about the future, when the best minor leaguers got their due before the game.
 
Sunday was about honoring a legend, Johnny Pesky, after the game.
 
Yesterday was a day off nobody really needed. It did, however, set up nicely for tonight’s pregame ceremony. Because everyone agrees that nothing says nostalgia like an eight-year anniversary — the 2004 World Series team will be honored.
 
And then there is tomorrow’s 2012 homestand conclusion, when the All-Fenway team will be announced.
 
All of these are nice diversions.
 
If anything, though, the distractions will serve to goad the team into realizing not only what went wrong (and why) with this year’s team, but also serve as a guide for how the team is going to get back on its feet.
 
The 2004 World Series team could, if this is played right, offer us all a reminder of how good the Red Sox used to be, and how they used to get things right more often than not.
 
In response to a request for comment about a related matter, Red Sox principal owner John Henry emailed some timely thoughts.
 
“The bottom line is that we did, as an organization, move away from our basic philosophy and 2012 quite painfully illustrated just how much that has cost us,’’ he said. “It’s up to us now, to rebuild in the right way. The game has changed over the past 10 years and it will change over the next 10. Media gains in both leagues are evening out payrolls. We used to be satisfied with making the postseason, but now we are focused on winning the division. To do that consistently we will have to more correctly value every player in ways that makes sense given the unpredictability of the game.”
 
Yes, the Red Sox are officially in rebuilding mode. And while they are not going to be doing it on the cheap, don’t be shocked to see the team sit on its cash reserves rather than make a panicky purchase just because a team like the Yankees or some other team drunk on enhanced TV revenues decides to make a big-time free agent splash.
 
The Red Sox may wind up making a big trade and shelling out a big-time, big-dollars contract if the incoming talent is young enough and elite enough, but otherwise, the team is going to try to replicate the kind of moves that landed them undervalued talents.
 
Think David Ortiz [stats]. Think Kevin Millar. Think Bill Mueller.
Think David Ortiz [stats]. Think Kevin Millar. Think Bill Mueller.
 
The specific approach is not so clear but there’s time for that to crystallize, just as the Red Sox [team stats]’ sorry season will be subjected to some gruesome postmortems soon enough. In that vein, Henry suggested that folks who want to point fingers at Theo Epstein, the former general manager who signed off on free agent blunders such as John Lackey, Bobby Jenks and Carl Crawford, are missing the forest for the trees.
 
“All this talk about blaming Theo is misguided,” said Henry. “He was a remarkable GM for us. How many wins a year did he produce? I don’t think there is a better mind in the game. And no one worked harder or was more committed to winning than he was. Between 2003 and 2009 he produced at least 95 wins every year except one. Everyone thinks 2011 was a disaster because of September, but we still managed to win 90 games that year.”


Henry has said before he did not like the Crawford deal. He more or less blamed himself for not stopping it.
 
“When there were disagreements it’s fair to say that ownership didn’t do enough to avoid some major mistakes,” he said. “When you’re successful you tend to let the people responsible for that success continue doing what they do best. We all felt we had the strongest baseball department in MLB and the best GM.
 
“We veered away from some of the cornerstones of our philosophy. You cannot blame any one person — you have to blame everyone. There were reasons for everything we did. Nothing was done without a great deal of thought.”
 
So think about that.
 
It’s the state of the Red Sox: Celebrate all of the past and the future, blame everyone for the present and as far as the regular season goes, just root for it to end.
 

-— msilverman@bostonherald.com

[Bear]

How will Red Sox manage search?

With Bobby Valentine likely gone, filling his job will be team's first priority

BOSTON -- Could a player's use of a homophobic slur on his eyeblack impact the Boston Red Sox's search for a new manager, assuming they decide not to bring back Bobby Valentine?

That was a question raised Monday by a longtime baseball executive during a lengthy discussion of the process that takes place when a team is conducting a search for a new manager. The player in question was Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Yunel Escobar, who last week was suspended three games for appearing on the field sporting a Spanish word that often is interpreted as an anti-gay slur.
What does Escobar have to do with the Red Sox's search for a manager? Escobar's manager in Toronto is John Farrell, the former Red Sox pitching coach widely perceived as a leading candidate to replace Valentine if Valentine is fired with a year left on his contract -- and the Blue Jays release Farrell from the last year of his contract. The incident, the baseball executive said, does not reflect well on Farrell's control of his clubhouse.

"I think the Escobar thing is a big deal," the executive said. "This guy was walking by everybody in the clubhouse. If you're a player and you see that, if you have any pop at all in the clubhouse, you tell him: '[Escobar] that comes off or you go talk to the manager.' But there apparently was no policing at all.

"How is that going to look to the people who were *****ing about beer and chicken in the Boston clubhouse last year? Farrell's coaches, field staff, trainer, clubhouse guy -- no one stopped Escobar. That makes you wonder how firm a grasp Farrell really had on the club. The CEO, Paul Beeston, had to be thinking, 'How could this happen in our clubhouse, on my team?' Toronto is a very cosmopolitan place, a very tolerant place, almost like the San Francisco of Canada. Something like that just can't be allowed to happen there."

Farrell was highly respected in Boston during his four years as Terry Francona's pitching coach with the Red Sox; the pitching staff has performed badly in the two seasons since he departed. He enjoys a good relationship with Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington and particularly with Mike Hazen, one of Cherington's top lieutenants who with Farrell ran Cleveland's farm system when they were with the Indians organization. He is well-spoken, interacts comfortably with the media and is regarded as a good communicator.

But the executive also said the Blue Jays' performance this season also should raise red flags with Cherington. The Blue Jays began play Monday in last place in the American League East. Like the Red Sox, they have been hit hard by injuries, but on June 7, they were three games over .500, at 30-27. Since then, only Cleveland (33-64) had a worse record than Toronto's 36-58 record. In the season's second half, the Blue Jays rank last in batting average (.227) and on-base percentage (.288), 13th in slugging percentage and 12th in runs scored.

"The talent doesn't equate with the record, even with the injuries," the executive said. "And this isn't like you're comparing apples to oranges. This is apples to apples, because the Blue Jays are competing in the same division. They're playing the same clubs the Red Sox are playing, and as bad as the Red Sox have been, they've been worse.
"Ben has to ask himself, 'Is this really the candidate I'm sold on, because he may be the last manager I get to hire.'"

The executive insisted he was not rendering a judgment on Farrell's suitability, just raising the kinds of questions the Red Sox should ask as they go through the process.

Surprisingly, the executive downplayed the importance of Boston's choice as manager, at least relative to what he considers a far more relevant issue.

"It doesn't matter who the manager is, the Red Sox won't win in 2013 unless they make good personnel decisions with the flexibility and wherewithal the August trade gave them, which is far more than most teams will take into the winter," he said.

For that reason, he said, the Red Sox cannot afford to drag out their search for a manager, should they have one. "You don't want to be bogged down looking for a manager when you have all these other issues you need to address," he said.

Ideally, he said, the Red Sox should have a manager in place in time for the general managers' meetings in November, which take place a week or so after the conclusion of the World Series. That didn't happen in 2011, when the Sox were still reeling from the departure of GM Theo Epstein and dismissal of Francona. Cherington had presented a candidate to Sox owners at the GM meetings last November in Milwaukee, but after having lunch with Dale Sveum, the Red Sox decided not to make an offer and Sveum took an offer from the Chicago Cubs (and Epstein) the next day.

The Sox did not hire a manager until December, when Valentine, who had not been on Cherington's original list of finalists and was introduced to the process by CEO Larry Lucchino, was named to the position.

The reason you want your manager in place as early as possible, the executive said, is that you want to focus most of your energy on rebuilding the club and want your manager's input on personnel decisions. "You have to put the team together with the manager in mind," he said. "You may have a player you like, but the manager doesn't feel the same way."
Ideally, you also want the manager to be part of the process of recruiting free agents. That is particularly important this winter, the executive said, to counteract the perception of Boston being a dysfunctional place to play.

Another factor that gives the process a certain amount of urgency is that there could be as many as four managing jobs open this winter. Houston has the only official opening -- former Sox bench coach Brad Mills was fired and current bench coach Tim Bogar last week interviewed and has emerged as a favorite, according to some informed speculation, along with Tampa Bay bench coach Dave Martinez. But there also could be openings in Detroit, Cleveland and Miami, especially if the Tigers miss the playoffs.

There is always the concern that if you dawdle in the process, the candidate you prefer could be grabbed by someone else.

By now, assuming the Red Sox have made the decision to let Valentine go and are just waiting until the end of the season to make it public, they should be in the process of assembling names of prospective candidates, which generally depends on the network of contacts a team has. Lucchino, with his lengthy experience in baseball, obviously has people he would turn to for recommendations and people who would contact him with suggestions.

Cherington also can rely on someone like top aide Allard Baird, a former GM in Kansas City who has an extensive network, to furnish names, with other scouts and minor league personnel contributing names as well. Cherington's own network might be limited, the executive said, by the fact that he has spent nearly his entire career with the Red Sox; that is mitigated by the fact that in 15 years, Cherington has served in a wide number of roles in both scouting and player development.

"Better to assemble names first and then decide whether they fit," the executive said, "because if you do it the opposite way, you might end up overlooking some guys. You also have to decide whether you will have any internal candidates, and what you will do with your coaches, whether any of them should be kept. In Boston's case, given the issues Bobby had with the coaching staff, you may have to start fresh.

"But then you discuss what kind of personality you want in a manager -- a consensus builder, a leader, a dictator. To me, strategizing doesn't rank first anymore. Gene Mauch couldn't manage today. To me, the most important factors for a manager today is communicating with players and handling the bullpen. You have to communicate on a daily basis. You want your manager not only to be the voice of the team, but to have his hand on the pulse of the club as well. You've got to be able to delegate, too, with coaches that are able to handle the responsibility.

"A bilingual component in today's game is also critical, if not with the manager, then with a strong coach."

It should be understood, the executive said, that the days of a GM hiring a manager in a vacuum are long over. Ownership could be involved, he said, and should be involved. In every managerial hiring process he was involved in, he said, ownership played a part.
"No matter who they pick, he will have to be blessed by ownership," the executive said. "They have to feel comfortable with the choice because the manager, he is the face and voice of the organization, the one people see at home and on ESPN. How he acts can definitely affect the perception of the ballclub, impact the club from both a strategic and marketing perspective.


"It's actually good for ownership to be involved, because they're going to bring up issues that may be different from the ones raised by your baseball operations people."


That said, the executive asserted, it hurt the Red Sox last year that Valentine was viewed not as Cherington's choice, but Lucchino's pick. It raised issues about the chain of command, he said, made it unclear whom Valentine really had to answer to and did not offer a clear picture of Cherington's authority to the players. It is important, he said, that Cherington's hand is seen as much more decisive in the decision-making process this time, even though Lucchino and the owners would have input.


It also needs to be recognized, the executive said, that Boston, like New York, is a much more challenging environment for a manager, especially for a first-time manager, such as Dave Martinez, Bogar or Joey Cora, all of whom the executive identified as extremely capable. That is especially true this year, he said, given the tumultuous circumstances of the previous 12 months. You don't automatically rule out first-timers, the executive said, but you proceed with the knowledge that you're asking an awful lot of a novice to come in and clean up the kind of mess that exists here.


Last winter, the Red Sox were very public about their search, bringing in each of their candidates for a session with the media. It is expected they would do the same this winter; to do otherwise would suggest they made a mistake in doing so in 2011. Being open about their search, the executive said, also can lead to input from sources who might not otherwise have volunteered information about a candidate.


The season ends a week from Wednesday. Red Sox owners have insisted they will wait until the end of the season to conduct a review of Valentine's status. That review, for all intents and purposes, almost certainly already has been conducted. An announcement might not be long in coming.

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/8422681/ben-cherington-boston-red-sox-figure-try-again-manager

[elktonnick]

I think the article makes an excellent case why not to hire Farrell.  The pattern has been for the Red Sox FO to fixate on a player or other hire and against all other reason pursue that individual.  Eventually they learn that the individual they covet wasn't suited for Boston.  I see Farrell as yet another example following: Renteria,l Lugo, Jenks, Gonzalez, Crawford et al.  As the old saying goes, "Be careful what you wish for."

[Murph63]

I think the article makes an excellent case why not to hire Farrell.  The pattern has been for the Red Sox FO to fixate on a player or other hire and against all other reason pursue that individual.  Eventually they learn that the individual they covet wasn't suited for Boston.  I see Farrell as yet another example following: Renteria,l Lugo, Jenks, Gonzalez, Crawford et al.  As the old saying goes, "Be careful what you wish for."

"The pattern has been for the Red Sox FO to fixate on a player"

Very true.  JD Drew is also an example of this pattern.

[Bear]

Ortiz Wants Respectable Deal From Red Sox

BOSTON (CBS) – David Ortiz will be a free agent after this season, and told the Boston Herald he wants to finish his career with Red Sox.
 
But at the same time, Ortiz wants a respectable deal from the organization.
 
“In my case, it’s not even all about the money,” Ortiz told the Herald. “It’s all about respect. That’s the way I see it.”
 
“It’s been, what, three years now that I’ve got to be answering this question, and I’ve been one of the most productive players on this ballclub. Why me?” Ortiz asked.
 
Ortiz has been vocal about his contract situation the last couple of years, with the DH accepting arbitration last season. He reportedly turned down a two-year, $18 million deal before Boston offered him arbitration.


Some things never change.....right?

Bleacher Report

[Murph63]

Ortiz Wants Respectable Deal From Red Sox

BOSTON (CBS) – David Ortiz will be a free agent after this season, and told the Boston Herald he wants to finish his career with Red Sox.
 
But at the same time, Ortiz wants a respectable deal from the organization.
 
“In my case, it’s not even all about the money,” Ortiz told the Herald. “It’s all about respect. That’s the way I see it.”
 
“It’s been, what, three years now that I’ve got to be answering this question, and I’ve been one of the most productive players on this ballclub. Why me?” Ortiz asked.
 
Ortiz has been vocal about his contract situation the last couple of years, with the DH accepting arbitration last season. He reportedly turned down a two-year, $18 million deal before Boston offered him arbitration.


Some things never change.....right?

Bleacher Report

"Ortiz Wants Respectable Deal From Red Sox"

He we go again.  Please let him test the open market this winter and let's see how the open market defines the term "respect."  The yankees did it with Jeter about 3 winters ago.  Cashman told Jeter flat out that if you think you can do better than our offer, then test the open market.  However, Jeter handled that winter with a lot of diginity and self respect.

[Pumpsie Green]

Ortiz Wants Respectable Deal From Red Sox

BOSTON (CBS) – David Ortiz will be a free agent after this season, and told the Boston Herald he wants to finish his career with Red Sox.
 
But at the same time, Ortiz wants a respectable deal from the organization.
 
“In my case, it’s not even all about the money,” Ortiz told the Herald. “It’s all about respect. That’s the way I see it.”
 
“It’s been, what, three years now that I’ve got to be answering this question, and I’ve been one of the most productive players on this ballclub. Why me?” Ortiz asked.
 
Ortiz has been vocal about his contract situation the last couple of years, with the DH accepting arbitration last season. He reportedly turned down a two-year, $18 million deal before Boston offered him arbitration.


Some things never change.....right?

Bleacher Report

With Ortiz, respect=$$
I would "respect" him this much: $12m for one year, team option for a second year. If he can find a better offer than he is welcome to take it.

[Murph63]

Ortiz Wants Respectable Deal From Red Sox

BOSTON (CBS) – David Ortiz will be a free agent after this season, and told the Boston Herald he wants to finish his career with Red Sox.
 
But at the same time, Ortiz wants a respectable deal from the organization.
 
“In my case, it’s not even all about the money,” Ortiz told the Herald. “It’s all about respect. That’s the way I see it.”
 
“It’s been, what, three years now that I’ve got to be answering this question, and I’ve been one of the most productive players on this ballclub. Why me?” Ortiz asked.
 
Ortiz has been vocal about his contract situation the last couple of years, with the DH accepting arbitration last season. He reportedly turned down a two-year, $18 million deal before Boston offered him arbitration.


Some things never change.....right?

Bleacher Report

With Ortiz, respect=$$
I would "respect" him this much: $12m for one year, team option for a second year. If he can find a better offer than he is welcome to take it.

Exactly.  Make him a competitive offer and if he doesn't like it or it's not "respectful" enough, let him test the open market and try to do better.  It's time for the sox to draw the line in the sand with him.  As with the yanks and Jeter, the sox have helped Ortiz be a wealthy man.  Interestingly, when the yanks and Jeter were going through this a lot of yankee fans sided with the yanks, meaning they felt the yanks made one of the team's most iconic players a competitive deal and were ok that they drew the line with Jeter.  Before the 2 sides began negotiating many in the media thought the yanks were going let Jeter write his own check and contract.  They were surely wrong as it turned out.  I'm sure a lot of sox fans will feel the same way with Ortiz as long as they make him a competitive offer this winter.